Country profile
Brazil
Latin America - BRL - Central Bank of Brazil. Data mode: demo cache, not live.
1.8%
Real output momentum.
10.4%
Short-rate stance proxy.
10.9%
Long-rate market signal.
86.0%
Fiscal sustainability anchor.
0.0%
Government balance share of GDP.
0.0%
External funding balance.
Regime classification
Watch49.1/100
Disinflationary growth
Growth is still positive while inflation is easing toward the policy target.
Confidence: 68%
GDP growth
Source: World Bank / national sources via demo cache - Demo data, not live.
Inflation
Source: Demo data module - Demo data, not live.
Unemployment
Source: Demo data module - Demo data, not live.
Policy rate
Source: Demo data module - Demo data, not live.
Debt-to-GDP
Source: Demo data module - Demo data, not live.
Current account
Source: Demo data module - Demo data, not live.
Risk score detail
Inflation49.1/100 - Watch
Geo/structural48/100 - Watch
Experimental CPI forecast
Simple moving-average forecast with widening confidence bands. Demo data, not live.
AI-generated country outlook
Executive summary: Brazil is classified as disinflationary growth with 68% confidence. Overall macro risk is watch at 49.1/100.
Growth outlook: Latest real GDP growth is 1.8%. The growth-momentum risk score is 40.3/100, so the dashboard treats weak growth as contained for now.
Inflation outlook: CPI inflation is 3.9% versus a 3.0% policy target. Inflation-pressure risk is 49.1/100.
Labor-market outlook: Unemployment is 7.2%. Labor conditions are interpreted together with growth and wage pressure, not as a standalone forecast.
Monetary-policy outlook: The policy-rate proxy is 10.4%. Monetary-tightness risk is 100/100, reflecting the real-rate and yield-curve signals in the demo cache.
Fiscal risk: The fiscal-balance proxy is 0.0% of GDP and the fiscal-stress score is 54.1/100.
External vulnerability: The current-account proxy is 0.0% of GDP and the external-vulnerability score is 27.6/100.
Key risks: The highest risk buckets are intended to guide research triage, not trading decisions. Missing or stale indicators should be reviewed before relying on the signal.
Data limitations: This report is generated from retrieved or demo-cache indicators only. Data timestamp: 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00. Forecasts, classifications, and risk scores are for research, education, and decision-support only. They are not investment, legal, tax, or financial advice.
Research disclaimer: Forecasts, classifications, and risk scores are for research, education, and decision-support only. They are not investment, legal, tax, or financial advice.