Fiscal sustainability
Sovereign debt and deficit risk
Assesses debt-to-GDP, fiscal balance, interest-rate pressure, nominal growth, and simple debt-dynamics arithmetic.
Debt-to-GDP
120.8%
U.S. demo proxy.
Fiscal balance
0.0%
Share of GDP.
Nominal GDP growth
4.8%
Growth plus inflation proxy.
Debt arithmetic
0.4%
(r - g) x debt - primary balance proxy.
Debt-to-GDP trend
Source: Demo data module - Demo data, not live.
Fiscal balance trend
Source: Demo data module - Demo data, not live.
Debt-dynamics explanation
The MVP uses the prompt-specified identity: change in debt ratio = (interest rate - nominal growth rate) x debt ratio - primary balance. Where primary balance is unavailable, the fiscal balance proxy is used and clearly treated as an approximation.
Countries ranked by fiscal stress
| Country | Latest | Risk score | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|
| Japan East Asia | 254.1% | 100High | Fiscal stress |
| Brazil Latin America | 86.0% | 54.1Watch | Disinflationary growth |
| United States North America | 120.8% | 49.4Watch | Disinflationary growth |
| Canada North America | 105.5% | 44.2Watch | Expansion |
| United Kingdom Europe | 101.8% | 40.6Watch | Disinflationary growth |
| Mexico Latin America | 51.1% | 40.5Watch | Expansion |
| China East Asia | 82.5% | 34.2Low | Disinflationary growth |
| Euro Area Europe | 88.9% | 32.1Low | Expansion |
| India South Asia | 80.5% | 28.6Low | Disinflationary growth |
| Germany Europe | 65.4% | 26Low | Expansion |
Research disclaimer: Forecasts, classifications, and risk scores are for research, education, and decision-support only. They are not investment, legal, tax, or financial advice.