Experimental
Forecasting lab
Simple baseline scenarios for research triage. The MVP uses naive, moving-average, and linear-trend forecasts and does not claim institutional-grade precision.
Oil shock
+ inflation
Raises pass-through pressure.
Dollar shock
+ external risk
FX depreciation scenario.
Rate shock
+ tightness
Higher real-rate scenario.
Fiscal shock
+ debt risk
Deficit and r-g stress.
Credit shock
+ spreads
Stress score scenario.
Moving-average CPI forecast
Latest forecast baseline: 2.9%.
Linear-trend forecast
Last observation carried forward
Research disclaimer: Forecasts, classifications, and risk scores are for research, education, and decision-support only. They are not investment, legal, tax, or financial advice.