Methodology
Transparent scoring and regime logic
The MVP starts with explainable rule-based scoring. Forecasts are deliberately simple and uncertainty is displayed instead of hidden.
Risk score categories
Growth momentum
Higher risk when GDP growth is below its recent average, growth is slowing, or unemployment is rising.
Inflation pressure
Higher risk when CPI is above target or rising, oil and food proxies are increasing, FX is depreciating, or wage growth is elevated.
Monetary tightness
Higher risk when real policy rates are positive and rising, the yield curve is inverted, or the policy rate is restrictive.
Fiscal stress
Higher risk when debt-to-GDP is high and rising, deficits are wide, or interest rates exceed nominal GDP growth.
Credit stress
Higher risk when NPLs rise, credit growth becomes unstable, or the yield curve signals tightening.
External vulnerability
Higher risk when current-account deficits are large, currencies depreciate, reserves fall, or external debt is elevated.
Macro regime classification
- Expansion: growth positive, inflation controlled, credit stress low.
- Slowdown: growth weakening, inflation moderate, credit stress rising.
- Recession risk: growth negative or weakening, unemployment rising, or curve/credit stress high.
- Stagflation: growth weak and inflation high.
- Disinflationary growth: growth stable while inflation falls.
- Credit stress, external stress, fiscal stress: the named risk bucket is high enough to override the base growth signal.
Forecasting limitations
The forecasting lab currently supports last-observation-carried-forward, moving-average, and linear-trend baselines. Scenario bands are illustrative. They are not probabilistic institutional forecasts and should be treated as research scaffolding.
How to extend the system
Add a new indicator by registering it in the shared indicator list, adding demo coverage in the demo-data module, then mapping it in the relevant live adapter.
Add a new source by implementing the common DataAdapter interface: fetchSeries, searchIndicators, and healthCheck.
Promote a demo series to live by keeping API keys on the server, validating responses, caching results, and preserving source labels under charts.