Global Macro Outlook AI

Macro intelligence MVP

Demo data mode

Country profile

China

East Asia - CNY - People's Bank of China. Data mode: demo cache, not live.

GDP growth

4.2%

Real output momentum.

Inflation

0.5%

Target: 3.0%

Unemployment

5.0%

Labor-market slack.

Policy rate

3.1%

Short-rate stance proxy.

10-year yield

2.2%

Long-rate market signal.

Debt-to-GDP

82.5%

Fiscal sustainability anchor.

Fiscal balance

0.0%

Government balance share of GDP.

Current account

1.1%

External funding balance.

Regime classification

Watch36.9/100

Disinflationary growth

Growth is still positive while inflation is easing toward the policy target.

Confidence: 68%

GDP growth

Source: World Bank / national sources via demo cache - Demo data, not live.

Inflation

Source: Demo data module - Demo data, not live.

Unemployment

Source: Demo data module - Demo data, not live.

Policy rate

Source: Demo data module - Demo data, not live.

Debt-to-GDP

Source: Demo data module - Demo data, not live.

Current account

Source: Demo data module - Demo data, not live.

Risk radar

Risk score detail

Growth28.6/100 - Low
Inflation33.2/100 - Low
Policy72.2/100 - Elevated
Fiscal34.2/100 - Low
Credit32.1/100 - Low
External28.7/100 - Low
Commodity28.7/100 - Low
Geo/structural40/100 - Watch

Experimental CPI forecast

Simple moving-average forecast with widening confidence bands. Demo data, not live.

AI-generated country outlook

Executive summary: China is classified as disinflationary growth with 68% confidence. Overall macro risk is watch at 36.9/100. Growth outlook: Latest real GDP growth is 4.2%. The growth-momentum risk score is 28.6/100, so the dashboard treats weak growth as contained for now. Inflation outlook: CPI inflation is 0.5% versus a 3.0% policy target. Inflation-pressure risk is 33.2/100. Labor-market outlook: Unemployment is 5.0%. Labor conditions are interpreted together with growth and wage pressure, not as a standalone forecast. Monetary-policy outlook: The policy-rate proxy is 3.1%. Monetary-tightness risk is 72.2/100, reflecting the real-rate and yield-curve signals in the demo cache. Fiscal risk: The fiscal-balance proxy is 0.0% of GDP and the fiscal-stress score is 34.2/100. External vulnerability: The current-account proxy is 1.1% of GDP and the external-vulnerability score is 28.7/100. Key risks: The highest risk buckets are intended to guide research triage, not trading decisions. Missing or stale indicators should be reviewed before relying on the signal. Data limitations: This report is generated from retrieved or demo-cache indicators only. Data timestamp: 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00. Forecasts, classifications, and risk scores are for research, education, and decision-support only. They are not investment, legal, tax, or financial advice.
Research disclaimer: Forecasts, classifications, and risk scores are for research, education, and decision-support only. They are not investment, legal, tax, or financial advice.